Panel 1 in the Table below provides cost estimates for most of the NDP election promises so far. In some cases it was not possible to provide estimates since not enough detail was provided.  NDP promises include a two point cut in the small business tax rate (already implemented in the budget by the Conservatives); extension of the accelerated capital cost allowance for two years (also already implemented by the Conservatives); an innovation tax credit for machinery used in research and development; an additional one cent of gas tax for the provinces for infrastructure; a transit infrastructure fund; increased funding for social housing; a major child care initiative; increasing ODA funding to 0.7 per cent of Gross National Income (GNI); and restoring the 6% annual escalator to the Canada Health Transfer.

The last three proposals are by far the most expensive. According to the NDP, it would take eight years to reach their goal of a million childcare spaces, at an annual cost of $5 billion when fully implemented. No cost estimate or timetable has been provided as to when the target of 0.7 percent of GNI for ODA funding would be reached.

 This is not surprising given that the federal government currently spends about $4.5 billion annually (0.24 % Of GNI) on international assistance.  Increasing this ratio to 0.7% of GNI implies a tripling of the current cost to about $13 billion and rising every year thereafter.

Increasing the CHT back to 6% per year would cost an incremental $600 million in 2018-19 rising to about $2 billion by 2019-20.

The total cost of the NDP proposals could amount to around $800 million in 2015-16 rising to roughly $11.5 billion in 2019-20. These estimates assume child-care costs of $2.5 billion and incremental funding for ODA of $ 4.2 billion in 2019-20 (a gradual increase in funding over 10 years).

Panel 2 provides estimates of how the NDP plans to pay for their election promises.  First, there are funds still available in the April budget beginning in 2016-17. Using the Bank of Canada forecast growth of 1% for this year, we have estimated that there would be a deficit of $1.6 billion in 2015-16. We have not adjusted the April budget’s fiscal projections for the outer years, but they could well be lower.

To fund these promises, the NDP is proposing to increase the general corporate tax rate, but have not indicated by how much.  A one-point increase in the general CIT would yield about $1.8 billion annually. We have assumed a phased increase of two points in the CIT raising the rate from 15 per cent to 17 per cent.

Like the Liberals, the NDP would repeal income spitting and maintain the existing maximum annual contribution to the TFSA. Based on these assumptions total available funds from these three initiatives would be about $1.2 billion in 2015-16 rising to $6.2 billion in 2019-20.

Panel 3 provides an estimate of the net impact of the proposed spending and revenue increases on the April 2015 budget balance. The net impact of the NDP platform to date would leave the April budget with a small deficit in 2015-16, followed by small surpluses in the next two years. The budget would be close to balance in the outer years. Without the increase in the CIT, the budget would be in deficit in every year.